Changes in the social and economic situation in the affected settlements of Győr-Moson-Sopron county following the handover of the M85 and M86 expressway

Abstract

This study examines the socio-economic impacts of the M85 and M86 expressways in Northwest Hungary, with particular attention to the development trajectories of rural settlements and changes in commuting patterns. The research is based on the assumption that transport infrastructure investments improve accessibility, increase labour mobility, and contribute to regional development. The analysis focuses on settlements located in Győr-Moson-Sopron and Vas counties and relies on census data from 2011 and 2022, complemented by Spatial Information System (TEIR) and Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH) databases. To assess the effects of expressway development, correlation analysis and a difference-in-differences (DiD) approach were applied, enabling comparisons between the affected and the control areas.

The findings indicate that proximity to expressways is associated with more favourable demographic and income indicators, whereas the independent effect of accessibility improvement is relatively limited. In rural settlements affected by the new roads, population decline slowed, housing stock expansion remained stronger, and job growth exceeded that observed in control areas. However, these changes did not substantially alter the overall development trajectory. The most notable impacts emerged in labour mobility and commuting systems. Out-commuting increased, labour market catchment areas expanded, and cross-border daily mobility intensified. The Austrian labour market became an increasingly important destination, particularly in the Sopron area and along the M85 corridor. Nevertheless, the results do not confirm a significant strengthening of polycentric relations between the regional centres of Győr, Sopron, and Szombathely. The study concludes that the expansion of the expressway network primarily reinforced existing spatial and labour market structures rather than generating new regional development axes. Transport infrastructure, therefore, appears to be a necessary but insufficient condition for territorial convergence and polycentric regional development.