Spatial differences in the climate vulnerability of Hungary

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to study spatial diWerences in climate vulnerability
within Hungary. Three components were examined: the vulnerability of the general populace, the
agricultural sector and lakeside tourism. The CIVAS methodology was employed, wherein
vulnerability is defined as the composite outcome of exposure to the changes in the climatic
parameters, the environmental, social and economic sensitivity to these changes, and the
capability to adapt to these changes.

Exposure is interpreted as the character, magnitude and rate of climate change. To measure
exposure, indicators such as the projected average yearly mean temperature for 2071-2100, the
increase in the average yearly mean temperature as well the projected susceptibility to droughts were selected. Sensitivity includes a broad spectrum of environmental, social and economic aspects. Its selected indicators are the following: the projected share of elderly individual, imperviousness of the urban fabric, soil drought sensitivity, crop climate sensitivity, employment in agriculture and tourism. For describing adaptation capability, Human Potential Index and Standard Agricultural Output were selected.

The projected changes in exposure align with recent observations. Based on interpolated
data of the weather stations, the mean yearly temperature of Hungary increased by 0.8 degrees
from 2002-2011 to 2012-2021. The included scenarios indicate a further significant future increase in the mean temperature. In contrast to this, the observed and forecasted shifts in precipitation patterns exhibit a more pronounced spatial heterogeneity. The eastern-northeastern part of the country may have to deal with a significant decrease; while conversely, the western-southwestern part of the country might even experience a heightened level of rainfall. This leads to increasing spatial differences in drought susceptibility, with particular emphasis on the central parts of the Hungarian Plain, where more severe droughts are to be expected. The spatial differences in exposure were adjusted by the indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity which added more spatial heterogeneity and accentuated the distinctions.