Multidisciplinary analysis of actual transport developments in Budapest: the development issue of the southern suburban railways

Abstract

At the time of this study's publication, the first phase of the so-called ÉDRV (North South Regional Rapid Transit system or Metro line no. 5) project is still in planning phase. This development is about upgrading and connecting the southern suburban railway (HÉV) lines ofBudapest (H5-H6 and H7) and extending it towards the city centre as an underground with a possible future connection to the north Buda suburban line. The initial question of the study is whether it is justified and reasonable to build a new underground line in Budapest's current transport network, which would create another connection to the city centre, where all four existing lines are present. This inquiry is also justiSed because such large-scale development scommit scarce – mainly financial – resources for a long time, inducing a significant amount of operating costs and constraining the development path of the transport system. With the purpose of comprehensive analysis, the authors appraise and compare the expected transport effects, the regional development potential, and the economic impacts of both the project mentioned aboveand its possible alternatives. In addition to methods routinely used in the Hungarian practice, such as transport modelling and conventional cost-benefit analysis, the paper also presents experimental research methods (e.g. techniques to extend cost-benefit analysis, estimation of the impact on regional development potential through changes of accessibility). These are used to broaden the appraisal methods, and to achieve a methodological development of decision-makingon public investments, and bring closer scientific results and professional practice. Based on these multidisciplinary calculations, none of the assessed expensive, construction-intensive alternativesis expected to provide a stable social return. Despite its accelerated preparation, the southern suburban railway development project's implementation in its currently planned form is not recommended based on the conservative assumptions applied in this paper. This finding is also supported and confirmed by structural arguments: the project would adversely affect and conserve the structure of the transport system and the urban fabric by strengthening centrality. Therefore, the study concludes by proposing a complete renewal and vehicle replacement of suburban railway lines and a new surface connection between H6 and H7 lines (according to the 0/B. Boráros development alternative in the paper). The results show that any additional investment is unjustified and suboptimal and does not produce the desired social returns.