Analysis of regional emigration profiles in Hungary based on a large sample

Abstract

With this research, we aim to answer whether it is possible to predict the population’s migration intentions and whether the different regions vary in migration potential. We also ask what kind of factors influence one’s determination to leave the country regardless of the fact that it is carried out by force, out of convenience, or for practical or emotional reasons. Can it be determined what characteristics people possess who tend to emigrate? In order to answer these questions, we processed survey information based on interviews with almost 6000 people (age 18–60) between 2013 and 2016.

In the first part of our study, we review the root causes of Hungarian emigration waves during the 20th and 21st centuries as part of which we analyze emigrants’ social status, their demographic features, issuing territories and target countries. The aim of the historical overview is to highlight similarities and differences between former exodus participants and today’s emigrants.

Addressing the research questions is hard because of their complexity and because it is not possible to measure the contributing factors’ social character (either the intention or the influencing factors) in an exact way. Furthermore, methodology raises additional questions. Perhaps this is the reason why the majority of migration studies are limited to the descriptive analysis of the demographic and economic characteristics of the registered emigrants compared to the statistical features of the domestic population. For the same reason, most of these studies fail to estimate and predict the probability of emigration and its changes.

In our study, we use logistic regression function to determine how certain subjective and objective factors (happiness, satisfaction, knowledge, employment, economical, educational background) contribute to the fact that one tends to move abroad for a shorter or longer period of time. Based on this we discuss whether there are differences between the regions with differing geographic, economic and demographic characteristics.