Environmental, economical and social climate vulnerability: a case study on the Hungarian South Great Plain

Abstract

Climate change – man-made or not, and its possible consequences – has become a mainstream topic of economic and social research. In our paper we would like show a Hungarian South Great Plain regional-scale analysis, tieing in with international trends, in which we investigate climate sensitivity from environmental and socio-economic aspects.

In order to demonstrate climate vulnerability we evaluated landscape changes, carried out evaluations of groundwater-level changes in detail, using a GIS database, and created a climate-sensitivity map for the vegetation of the South Great Plain. It is possible, that the role of artesian water extraction is much smaller than has been indicated in 1990’s researches. Examination of the vegetation shows that areas with better water supply and natural vegetation on hydromorphic soils are the most sensitive to climate change.

In our research we established indices of economic and social sensitivity as well as indices of adaptation and exposure. These indices contain social characteristics and economic sectors, which are vulnerable in Hungarian circumstances from the point of view of climate change. We collected data for settlements, not for small regions as previous Hungarian analysis. We chose typical indices which are suitable for exploration of spatial differences. In addition, we try to estimate the adaptation ability of individual settlements. Here, incomes and intellectual, scientific and technological potentials play a role, which can be used in the process of adaptation on a local level. In the exposure index we included such other indices – beside basic climatic indices – which amplify the effects of changes.

Based on economic and social vulnerability, adaptation and exposure indices we created a socio-economic climate sensitivity index. It highlights the most sensitive “hot spots”. These “hot spots” are partially congruent with territories identified by environmental research. It is necessary to pay significantly more attention to these territories in view of the climate change, and these territories – with their exposure – are recommended as primary fields of study in future research work. Investigations should be carried out at municipal level because vulnerable sites can be selected on the basis of spatially precise and complex criteria.

Results of our analysis suggest that consequences of climate change are part of a complex system. Moreover, thinking within a system is necessary when we reveal effects and consequences of the behaviour of society on the landscape. This systematic approach is missing from national climate change researches at this moment.

Finally, we draw attention to the fact that the complex system of climate change and its consequences corroborates the validity of geography to have an integrated role in the research process.