Local level analysis of climate-change-related natural risks and social preparedness in Central and South East Europe – The results of a transnational project

Abstract

In the past decades, topics related to socio-economic impacts of climate change and to mapping of potential natural risks caused by extreme climatic situations have been put high on the researchers’ agenda. Extreme weather conditions increase the vulnerability of local communities, who are in need of proper climate adaptation and mitigating strategies. There have been a number of transnational projects in the Carpathian Basin financed by different EU funding schemes, which examined the causes and impacts of climate change from various perspectives (e.g. CARPATH CC, earlier ADAM, CECILIA, ENSEMBLES, PRUDENCE, etc.).

SEERISK, including nine Central and South-East European countries, is a SEE (South East Europe Transnational Cooperation Programme) funded project, commenced in 2012. The project objectives were elaborating, testing and sharing uniform methodologies for mapping risks related to climate change, examining the social consequences, and formulating recommendations for community strategy building which are applicable across the Danube region. The project also aimed to share experience and prepare local communities for extreme weather situations and for managing natural disaster situations using adaptable innovative methods.

The present study aims at presenting the major outcomes of the SEERISK project. The main ambition of the paper is to present the applicability of the methodologies used in social sciences for the problem field of climate change and also the way these methods can be combined with natural science and GIS methods in order to formulate an integrated project framework. The combined methodology was applied in six case study areas.

Common risk assessment methodology integrates the European Commission’s Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management. Each case study area prepared a risk matrix focusing on the natural hazard that they chose as the most relevant for their area and developed a risk scenario describing the natural hazard and its consequences. The methodology offers various alternative solutions for implementing the risk assessment process, especially for developing risk maps.

Examining the social aspect of climate change involved the assessment of awareness and preparedness of individuals and stakeholders in the pilot communities. The social survey of the project reflected on the awareness and preparedness of inhabitants and institutions in the pilot communities regarding climate-change-related natural hazards. The approach and behaviour of the inhabitants were studied by a non-representative questionnaire survey, while the approach of the institutions and decision makers was revealed by conducting interviews and by scrutinising local planning documents of the municipalities concerned. The questionnaire survey served to build firm knowledge about the local people’s awareness of climate change impacts on their life and their preparedness for related natural hazards. Personal interviewing and analysing planning documents contributed to understanding the administrative and institutional approach and reaction to climate change and its consequences in the Danube macro-region.

By combining risk assessment and social surveys, gaps were identified between the actual exposure to hazards and the level of community preparedness. Finally, a collection of recommendations was compiled in a guideline of climate change mitigation and adaptation useful for decision makers, academics and individuals who are all equally exposed to the impacts of global climate change.