Labour market adaptability in Hungary during COVID-19: An analysis of regional employment disparities between 2019 and 2023 using the shift-share method

Abstract

The global economy has undergone, and is undergoing, a major transformation in recent years. The global economic crisis of 2008, the coronavirus crisis and the current crisis caused by the Russian-Ukrainian war have set new research objectives for territorial studies, in addition to the macroeconomic level. In our study we aim to map the spatial differences in the labour market in our country. We investigate the relationships between the spatial and sectoral structure of employment using shift-share analysis. Data from the KSH Labour Force Survey are analysed by economic sector. We quantify the spatial and sectoral dimensions of the employment data for the period of the labour market crisis, mainly employment, caused by COVID-19 and the period afterwards. At the regional level, Pest county, Budapest and Győr-Moson-Sopron and Hajdú-Bihar showed the most significant positive employment outcomes from 2019 to 2020 following the outbreak, while Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok, Baranya, Bács-Kiskun, Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén, Heves and Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg were the typical locations of negative changes. The majority of the positive values of the "total" effect were observed in Budapest, Pest, Győr-Moson-Sopron, Hajdú-Bihar, Somogy and Veszprém counties, while a very significant part of the negative changes were observed in Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok, Baranya, Bács-Kiskun, Borsod-Abaúj-Zemplén, Heves and Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg counties. In terms of "spatial effects", essentially the same ranking or rates were observed for 2020/2019. The sectoral factor slightly nuances the changes in the number of persons employed. Budapest is even more prominent in the group with positive values, but Hajdú-Bihar and Somogy are also positive in this group, and several counties that are among the losers in the "total" impact (e.g. Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg, Baranya, Bács-Kiskun) also have positive values. Compared to 2020, by 2023, regional employment patterns have shifted somewhat. Pest and Győr-Moson-Sopron remain among the best performers, while Budapest has been replaced by Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok. The counties of Békés, Tolna and Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg were the most affected. The analysis also shows that redundancies and employment growth varied across sectors. The majority of the positive values of the "total" effect were found in Pest, Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok, Győr-Moson-Sopron, Baranya, Komárom-Esztergom, while a very significant part of the negative changes were found in Békés, Tolna and Szabolcs-Szatmár-Bereg and Vas counties. In terms of "spatial" impacts, essentially the same ranking or rates were observed for the years 2023/2020. In terms of the sectoral factor, only Budapest and Pest counties are characterised by positive values in the group.