Sustainability and climate adaptation in urban development – lock-in analysis in Budapest XVII. district

Abstract

Due to global warming, humanity has to face irreversible effects regarding social, environmental, and economic systems. Climate change and its impacts fundamentally affect the transition to sustainable development. Therefore beside sustainability, resilience is getting more and more popular in urban research. Despite the academic relevance, it is barely understood how these paradigms affect each other, particularly in practice. People, economic functions and related environmental encumbrances are densified in cities that are main contributors of global warming and related extreme weather events. Thus, urban areas play a crucial role in the adaptation to changing conditions.

This study attempts to identify how the core spatial planning actions limit sustainability and resilience at the micro-level. The study area is the 17th District of Budapest, the capital of Hungary, but the used method can be adapted to other settlements based on local circumstances. Aspects of strong sustainability, adaptation to climate change, and lock-in are taken into account in three different but associated ex-ante surveys. Direct and indirect effects are deeply considered in the presented framework as part of a complex impact assessment. The elaborated method eases the identification of trade-offs, synergies, and potential lock-ins among the key projects at the design stage; hence it can be a beneficial ex-ante tool for decision-makers. The presented analysis can be used universally; however, the results depend significantly on local conditions, purposes, and the defined adaptation aspects.

The applied methodology provides decision-making in urban development with a novel input, which was not or barely considered before, despite the fact that adaptation to climate change as a horizontal part of sustainable development is crucial. It is shown that these aspects can stay hidden in a comprehensive sustainability assessment. The identified adverse effects should not automatically mean the cancellation of the project. On the contrary, they can open decision-makers’ and planners’ eyes to potential issues, which risk long-term transition to sustainability. Besides, they indicate where more conscious and profound planning and implementing is required.

In sum, the elaborated method is capable of a complex ex-ante impact assessment of urban planning projects. It can unveil previously hidden aspects of sustainability and potential path dependencies thus, it can be a useful tool for decision-makers and urban planners.

After a short introduction, an academic review sums up linkages between the paradigms of sustainability and resilience. Then the description of the study area and methods are discussed, followed by the analysis of results, including synergies and trade-oPs of the three ex-ante cases. Finally, the potentials, limits, and challenges of the elaborated impact assessments are featured in the conclusion with recommendations for further research paths.