Political transitions and migration transitions? A comparison of Eastern European and Latin American migratory processes

Abstract

Migration transitions, as conceptualised by Zelinsky (1971) and several other scholars – most importantly Skeldon (1997) are processes during which regions and countries change their role in the global flows of migration, becoming either net migrant-sending or net migrant-receiving territories. Regions of transition, however, are rarely compared with each other. In this study, Eastern European and Latin American migratory processes are compared in order to examine how political transitions (to democracy or back to democracy, respectively) and several historical and economic consequences shaped the overall nature and balance of migratory flows in both regions.

The typology on which the study relies was formulated by Melegh (2013) for migratory processes in Eastern Europe. Here it is also applied to another world region, Latin America, which has also undergone several structural changes in the past decades, most importantly the transition back to democracy and the integration into the world economy under neoliberal economic policies. Despite their obvious differences, these two regions have several characteristics in common.

Both Eastern Europe and Latin America showed migratory waves of varying intensity while passing through these phases. In a rather sudden manner, flows of migrants appeared after the fall of the Iron Curtain and after the creation of NAFTA. Based on Net Migration Rate and GDP data, this study investigates the connections of some historical and geographic patterns of current migratory movements, breaking them down into four categories for both regions.

Categories are based on long term trends of net migration rate changes. Will middleincome countries change from migrant-sending to migrant-receiving? According to the findings, several historical and geographic conditions have to be met for such a transformation to take place. Only a quarter of the 36 countries analysed showed such tendencies, while the net migration rate of the other countries either stayed negative, oscillated, or decreased. The ratio of a country’s GDP to the world GDP average has proved to be a relevant factor, indicating the relative position of a given country in the world economy.

Belonging to former colonial empires or being a member country of a federation is also a decisive feature in shaping migratory linkages. In the case of Eastern Europe, it is the breakup of countries such as the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia that changed internal migration into international migration, while historical and linguistic ties of ethnic Hungarians outside Hungary were a major draw for their immigration to this country. In Latin America, second and third generation immigrants from countries such as Spain, Portugal, Italy and Japan headed back to the home of their ancestors, benefiting from liberal visa policies. In both regions, several “mini-systems” of migration emerged – however, none of these countries has become a “global” migration hub.